Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 41.98%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (7.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.