Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan win with a probability of 77.86%. A draw had a probability of 15.37% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 6.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.67%) and 3-0 (11.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.93%) , while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (2.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.