Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haiti win with a probability of 56.3%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 23.55% and a draw had a probability of 20.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haiti win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.66%) and 1-0 (7.24%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-2 (5.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.