Eredivisie | Gameweek 29

Apr 13, 2025 at 3.45pm UK

Koning Willem II Stadion

Willem II
1 - 2
Ajax

Kehrer (41')
Mathijsen (8')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Valaker Edvardsen (74'), Weghorst (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Willem II and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Willem II

All competitions

Last Game: Heerenveen 3-1 Willem II
Friday, April 4 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 3-1 NAC Breda
Sunday, April 6 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.28%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 16.68%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for a Willem II win it was 2-1 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Willem II	Draw	Ajax
16.68% ( -0.07)	20.03% ( -0.03)	63.28% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 55.35% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.15% (

0.01)

39.84% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.8% (

0.01)

62.2% (

-0.01)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.88% (

-0.07)

37.11% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.1% (

-0.08)

73.9% (

0.08)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.01% (

0.03)

11.99% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.59% (

0.07)

37.41% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Willem II 16.68%

Ajax 63.28%

Draw 20.03%

Willem II	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 4.64% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 2.19% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 16.68%	1-1 @ 9.35% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.45% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.03%	0-2 @ 10.01% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.92% ( -0) 0-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 7.08% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 7.02% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 3.76% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.72% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.48% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.84% 0-5 @ 1.59% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.85% Total : 63.28%