Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for NEC had a probability of 30.29% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.47%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest NEC win was 2-1 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.