Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 43.71%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.63%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.