Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.