Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 49.66%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 25.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 0-1 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.