Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.53%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.