Copa Sudamericana
Jul 22, 2026 11.00pm
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellin vs Vasco da Gama - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

All competitions

Vasco da Gama

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 46.29%. A draw has a probability of 27.96% and a win for Vasco da Gama has a probability of 25.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.08%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.62%) , while for a Vasco da Gama win it is 0-1 (8.93%).

Result

Independiente Medellin 46.29% (-0.04)
Draw 27.96%
Vasco da Gama 25.75% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.6%

Goals

Over 1.5 66.88% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 33.12% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 41.21% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 58.79%
Over 3.5 20.39%
Under 3.5 79.61%
Over 4.5 10.84% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 89.16% (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Independiente Medellin 33.65%
Draw 44.75%
Vasco da Gama 21.6%

Team To Score First

Independiente Medellin 54.44%
No Goal 10.55% (-0.01)
Vasco da Gama 35.01% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 56.77%
Equal 8 11.54%
Under 8 31.69%
Over 9 45.1%
Equal 9 11.67%
Under 9 43.23%
Over 10.5 34.28%
Under 10.5 65.72%

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 1.5 38.94% (-0.03)
Under 1.5 61.06% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 15.29% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 84.71% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 5.17% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 94.83% (+0.02)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5 57.55% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 42.45% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 23.3% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 76.7% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 7.6% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 92.4% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 1.96%
Under 3.5 98.04%

Score analysis

Independiente Medellin 46.29%
Draw 27.95%
Vasco da Gama 25.75%
Independiente Medellin
1-0 @ 13.63% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 9.08% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 9.06% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.14%
3-1 @ 3.64%
3-2 @ 1.7%
Other @ 5.04% (-0.01)
Total : 46.29%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.62%
0-0 @ 10.55% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.01%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 27.95%
Vasco da Gama
0-1 @ 8.93%
1-2 @ 6.01% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.98% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 1.89%
0-3 @ 1.61% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 1.83%
Total : 25.75%