Copa Libertadores Gameweek 3
May 1, 2026 3.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
LIVE Estadio Atanasio Girardot
  • Didier Moreno 46' yellowcard
  • John Edwin Montaño 63' yellowcard
  • John Edwin Montaño 64' yellowcard
  • Hayen Palacios 64' yellowcard
  • Baldomero Perlaza 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Carlos Diez 56'

Independiente Medellin vs Real Garcilaso - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 17, 2026 1.30am
Flamengo 4 - 1 Medellin

Real Garcilaso

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 14, 2026 11.00pm
Estudiantes 2 - 1 Garcilaso

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 55.4%. A draw has a probability of 25.54% and a win for Real Garcilaso has a probability of 19.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.2%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.23%) , while for a Real Garcilaso win it is 0-1 (7.04%).

Result

Independiente Medellin 55.4% (+0.04)
Draw 25.54% (-0.07)
Real Garcilaso 19.03%

Both Teams to Score: 

42.41%

Goals

Over 1.5 68.37% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 31.63% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 43.14% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 56.86% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 22.2% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 77.8% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 13.03% (-0.03)
Under 4.5 86.97% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Independiente Medellin 48.78%
Draw 35.76%
Real Garcilaso 15.45%

Team To Score First

Independiente Medellin 63.22% (+0.01)
No Goal 9.84% (-0.02)
Real Garcilaso 26.94% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 50.8%
Equal 8 11.43%
Under 8 37.76%
Over 9 39.77%
Equal 9 11.04%
Under 9 49.2%
Over 10.5 29.94%
Under 10.5 70.06%

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 1.5 46.23% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 53.77% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 21.17%
Under 2.5 78.83%
Over 3.5 8.47% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 91.53% (+0.02)

Real Garcilaso Goals

Over 0.5 49.95% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 50.05% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 18.18% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 81.82% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 5.2% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 94.8% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 1.28% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 98.72% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Independiente Medellin 55.4%
Draw 25.54%
Real Garcilaso 19.02%
Independiente Medellin
1-0 @ 14.71% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 11.2%
2-1 @ 9.2% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 5.99% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.3%
3-2 @ 1.73%
Other @ 8.27%
Total : 55.4%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.23% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 9.84% (-0.02)
2-2 @ 3.59% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.2% (-0.01)
Total : 25.54%
Real Garcilaso
0-1 @ 7.04% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 4.86% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 2.8% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.28% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.07%
Other @ 1.08%
Total : 19.02%