Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 52.47%. A draw had a probability of 25.46% and a win for Juventud had a probability of 22.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%) , while for a Juventud win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.