Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 45.35%. A draw had a probability of 28.44% and a win for Atletico Bucaramanga had a probability of 26.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%) , while for a Atletico Bucaramanga win it was 0-1 (8.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.