Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 48.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.35% and a win for Real Garcilaso had a probability of 25.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%) , while for a Real Garcilaso win it was 0-1 (7.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.