Copa Libertadores Gameweek 4
May 8, 2026 1.30am
Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Independiente Medellin

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
May 1, 2026 3.00am
Medellin 1 - 0 Garcilaso

Flamengo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 30, 2026 1.30am
Estudiantes 1 - 1 Flamengo

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Flamengo win with a probability of 42.18%. A win for Independiente Medellin has a probability of 29.27% and a draw has a probability of 28.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Independiente Medellin win is 1-0 (9.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.8%).

Result

Independiente Medellin 29.27% (+0.02)
Draw 28.55% (+0.04)
Flamengo 42.18% (-0.07)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.85% (-0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.96% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 33.04% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 41.46% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 58.54% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 20.39% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 79.61% (+0.02)
Over 4.5 10.6% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 89.4% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Independiente Medellin 26.55% (-0.01)
Draw 45.02% (-0.01)
Flamengo 28.42% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Independiente Medellin 43.25% (+0.04)
No Goal 10.54%
Flamengo 46.21% (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 52.38% (-0.08)
Equal 8 11.93% (-0.01)
Under 8 35.69% (+0.08)
Over 9 40.74% (-0.06)
Equal 9 11.64% (-0.01)
Under 9 47.62% (+0.08)
Over 10.5 30.32% (-0.04)
Under 10.5 69.68% (+0.04)

Independiente Medellin Goals

Over 1.5 26.77% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 73.23% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 8.8% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 91.2% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 2.42% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 97.58% (-0.02)

Flamengo Goals

Over 0.5 70.38% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 29.62% (-0.02)
Over 1.5 35.95%
Under 1.5 64.05%
Over 2.5 14.1%
Under 2.5 85.9%
Over 3.5 4.15% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 95.85% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Independiente Medellin 29.26%
Draw 28.56%
Flamengo 42.19%
Independiente Medellin
1-0 @ 9.78% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 6.77% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 4.92% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 2.13% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 2.13%
3-2 @ 1.27%
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 29.26%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.8% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 10.54%
2-2 @ 4.21% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.16% (+0.02)
Total : 28.56%
Flamengo
0-1 @ 12.73%
1-2 @ 8.6% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 7.77%
0-3 @ 3.57% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 3.46% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 2.07% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.99%
Total : 42.19%

Head to Head

Copa Libertadores Gameweek 2
Apr 17, 2026 1.30am
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho
  • Lucas Paquetá 15' goal
  • Bruno Henrique  45' goal
  • Giorgian de Arrascaeta 49' goal
  • Gonzalo Plata 63' yellowcard
  • Luiz Araújo 63' yellowcard
  • Pedro 77' yellowcard
  • Nicolás de la Cruz 77' yellowcard
  • Wallace Yan 83' yellowcard
  • Pedro 90'+6' goal
  • goal Yony González 40'
  • yellowcard Baldomero Perlaza 68'
  • yellowcard Hayen Palacios 68'
  • yellowcard Halam Loboa 68'
  • yellowcard Daniel Cataño 68'
  • yellowcard John Edwin Montaño 68'
  • yellowcard Diego Moreno 86'