Copa Libertadores Gameweek 5
May 20, 2026 11.00pm
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional vs Universitario - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
May 7, 2026 3.00am
Tolima 3 - 0 Nacional

Universitario

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
May 8, 2026 1.00am
Coquimbo 2 - 1 Universitario

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 45.33%. A draw has a probability of 27.55% and a win for Universitario has a probability of 27.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.93%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (13.16%) , while for a Universitario win it is 0-1 (9.12%).

Result

Nacional 45.33%
Draw 27.55%
Universitario 27.12% (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

45.78% (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.18% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 31.82% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 41.59%
Under 2.5 58.41%
Over 3.5 21.06% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 78.94% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 11.09% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 88.91% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Nacional 28.11%
Draw 48.75%
Universitario 23.14%

Team To Score First

Nacional 50.24% (+0.02)
No Goal 9.57% (-0.01)
Universitario 40.19%

Corners

Over 8 47.67%
Equal 8 12.15%
Under 8 40.18%
Over 9 36.23%
Equal 9 11.44%
Under 9 52.33%
Over 10.5 26.33%
Under 10.5 73.67%

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 38.51% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 61.49% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 15.44%
Under 2.5 84.56%
Over 3.5 5.23%
Under 3.5 94.77%

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5 59.21% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 40.79% (-0.04)
Over 1.5 24.65% (+0.03)
Under 1.5 75.35% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 7.79% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 92.21% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.98% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 98.02% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Nacional 45.33%
Draw 27.55%
Universitario 27.12%
Nacional
1-0 @ 13.13% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 8.93%
2-1 @ 8.53% (-0.01)
3-0 @ 4% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.75%
3-2 @ 1.83% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.16%
Total : 45.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.16%
0-0 @ 9.57% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.12%
Other @ 0.07%
Total : 27.55%
Universitario
0-1 @ 9.12% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 6.41%
0-2 @ 4.5% (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.11% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 1.58% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.49%
Other @ 1.91% (+0.02)
Total : 27.12%

Head to Head

Copa Libertadores Gameweek 3
Apr 30, 2026 3.00am
4
2
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Monumental
  • Caín Fara 40' goal
  • Álex Valera 46' goal
  • Jesús Castillo 66' yellowcard
  • Lisandro Alzugaray 69' yellowcard
  • Héctor Fértoli 80' yellowcard
  • José Rivera 80' yellowcard
  • Lisandro Alzugaray 81' goal
  • José Carabalí 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Maxi Gómez 14'
  • yellowcard Maximiliano Silvera  63'
  • yellowcard Agustín Dos Santos 63'
  • goal Maximiliano Silvera  71'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Martínez 83'
  • yellowcard Emiliano Ancheta 83'
  • yellowcard P. Núñez 86'