Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 45.08%. A draw had a probability of 27.64% and a win for Universitario had a probability of 27.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.87%) and 2-1 (8.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%) , while for a Universitario win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.