Championship Gameweek 4
Sep 1, 2026 7.45pm
Swansea.com Stadium

Swansea City vs Watford - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Swansea City

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 12.30pm
Derby 0 - 3 Swansea
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Joseph Okopu

Watford

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
Watford 1 - 1 West Ham
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Amin Nabizada

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Swansea City win with a probability of 42.19%. A win for Watford has a probability of 29.56% and a draw has a probability of 28.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Watford win is 0-1 (8.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.94%).

Result

Swansea City 42.19% (+0.63)
Draw 28.25% (-0.02)
Watford 29.56% (-0.59)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.56% (-0.13)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.41% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 29.59% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 45.01% (-0.13)
Under 2.5 54.99% (+0.13)
Over 3.5 24.02% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 75.98% (+0.03)
Over 4.5 12.54% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 87.46% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Swansea City 32.46% (-0.04)
Draw 46.45% (-0.08)
Watford 21.08% (+0.09)

Team To Score First

Swansea City 53.6% (-0.01)
No Goal 9.2% (+0.06)
Watford 37.2% (-0.05)

Corners

Over 8 57.33%
Equal 8 11.45%
Under 8 31.22% (-0.02)
Over 9 45.72% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.62%
Under 9 42.67%
Over 10.5 34.89%
Under 10.5 65.11%

Swansea City Goals

Over 1.5 38.63% (+0.42)
Under 1.5 61.37% (-0.42)
Over 2.5 15.32% (+0.26)
Under 2.5 84.68% (-0.26)
Over 3.5 5% (+0.10)
Under 3.5 95% (-0.10)

Watford Goals

Over 0.5 63.44% (-0.54)
Under 0.5 36.56% (+0.54)
Over 1.5 28.99% (-0.50)
Under 1.5 71.01% (+0.50)
Over 2.5 9.77% (-0.24)
Under 2.5 90.23% (+0.24)
Over 3.5 2.74% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 97.26% (+0.08)

Score analysis

Swansea City 42.19%
Draw 28.26%
Watford 29.56%
Swansea City
1-0 @ 11.51% (+0.15)
2-1 @ 8.79% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 7.56% (+0.18)
3-1 @ 3.83% (+0.07)
3-0 @ 3.41% (+0.10)
3-2 @ 2.2% (+0.02)
Other @ 4.89% (+0.10)
Total : 42.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.94% (-0.04)
0-0 @ 9.2% (+0.06)
2-2 @ 5.13% (-0.04)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 28.26%
Watford
0-1 @ 8.89% (-0.09)
1-2 @ 7.01% (-0.13)
0-2 @ 4.88% (-0.13)
1-3 @ 2.53% (-0.06)
2-3 @ 1.83% (-0.04)
0-3 @ 1.79% (-0.09)
Other @ 2.63% (-0.08)
Total : 29.56%

Head to Head

Championship
Jan 31, 2026 3.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze 65' yellowcard
  • Kwadwo Baah 65' yellowcard
  • Nestory Irankunda 76' yellowcard
  • Nampalys Mendy 77' yellowcard
  • goal Marko Stamenić 55'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Nunes 59'
  • yellowcard Liam Cullen 59'
  • yellowcard Ethan Galbraith 68'
  • yellowcard Malick Yalcouyé 69'
  • goal Josh Key 80'
  • yellowcard Josh Key 80'
Championship
Aug 23, 2025 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 37
Mar 12, 2025 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Vicarage Road
  • Moussa Sissoko 27' goal
  • Imran Louza 42' yellowcard
  • Egil Selvik 72' yellowcard
  • Edo Kayembe 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ben Cabango 48'
  • yellowcard Liam Cullen 88'
Championship Gameweek 14
Nov 5, 2024 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Swansea.com Stadium
  • Myles Peart-Harris 35' goal
  • Matt Grimes 40' yellowcard
  • Goncalo Franco 44' yellowcard
  • Myles Peart-Harris 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Festy Ebosele 26'
  • yellowcard Francisco Sierralta 45'
Championship Gameweek 36
Mar 6, 2024 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Vicarage Road
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Jake Livermore 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Ryan Porteous 57' goal
  • Ryan Andrews 67' yellowcard
  • Ryan Porteous 83' yellowcard
  • goal Ryan Andrews 18' (OG)
  • yellowcard Josh Tymon 32'
  • yellowcard Nathan Wood 36'
Championship Gameweek 13
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Swansea.com Stadium
  • yellowcard Jake Livermore 30'
  • yellowcard Wesley Hoedt 73'
  • goal Ken Sema 82'
  • yellowcard Edo Kayembe 86'