Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 37.06%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 36.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.