Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 45.48%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.88%) and 1-2 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.83%), while for a Grimsby Town win it was 1-0 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.