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FA Cup
Burnley logo
FA Cup | Fourth Round Replays
Feb 7, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Ipswich logo

Burnley
2 - 1
Ipswich

Tella (2', 90+4')
Cork (33'), Vitinho (36')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Hirst (3')
Hirst (52'), Aluko (60'), Chaplin (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's FA Cup clash between Burnley and Ipswich Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Norwich 0-3 Burnley
Saturday, February 4 at 12.30pm in Championship

Ipswich Town

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Cambridge 1-1 Ipswich
Saturday, February 4 at 3pm in League One

We said: Burnley 1-0 Ipswich Town

 Ipswich were impressive against Burnley last time out, and we are expecting this to be a close match in terms of the scoreline. Both managers will make changes from their usual league XIs, but Burnley should have enough quality in reserve to book their spot in the fifth round of the competition. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.25%. A win for Ipswich Town had a probability of 25.75% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest Ipswich Town win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawIpswich Town
50.25% (0.030999999999999 0.03) 24% (-0.022000000000002 -0.02) 25.75% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
Both teams to score 55.75% (0.053999999999995 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.13% (0.076999999999998 0.08)45.87% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.81% (0.073999999999998 0.07)68.18% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.69% (0.040999999999997 0.04)18.3% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.61% (0.07 0.07)49.38% (-0.07 -0.07)
Ipswich Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.25% (0.031999999999996 0.03)31.75% (-0.032 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.82% (0.036999999999999 0.04)68.17% (-0.037000000000006 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 50.25%
    Ipswich Town 25.75%
    Draw 24%
BurnleyDrawIpswich Town
1-0 @ 9.87% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.61% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 8.38% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 5.44% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 3.12% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.31% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.01% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 50.25%
1-1 @ 11.32% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.81% (-0.019 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.51% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.19% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24%
0-1 @ 6.67% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-2 @ 6.5% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-2 @ 3.83% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.48% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 2.11% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.46% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 25.75%

How you voted: Burnley vs Ipswich

Burnley
78.9%
Draw
13.5%
Ipswich Town
7.5%
133
Head to Head
Jan 28, 2023 3pm
Fourth Round
Ipswich
0-0
Burnley

Harness (26'), Morsy (71')

Beyer (13'), Cork (88')
Jan 2, 2016 3pm
Burnley
0-0
Ipswich

Lowton (59'), Barton (91')
Aug 18, 2015 7.45pm
Ipswich
2-0
Burnley
> Match Report
Apr 26, 2014 12.15pm
Burnley
1-0
Ipswich
> Match Report
Oct 19, 2013 3pm
Ipswich
0-1
Burnley
> Match Report
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