Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Bournemouth had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Bournemouth win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.