Championship Gameweek 9
Oct 10, 2026 3.00pm
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Wrexham - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 3.00pm
Burnley 1 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Wrexham

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 3.00pm
Wrexham 2 - 1 Southampton
Goals scored
9
Top scorer
Kieffer Moore

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Wrexham win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 30.81% and a draw has a probability of 27.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-0 (9.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.01%).

Result

Derby County 30.81% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 27.97% ▼ (-0.02)
Wrexham 41.22% ▲ (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

46.92% ▲ (+0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.6% ▲ (+0.34)
Under 1.5 31.4% ▼ (-0.34)
Over 2.5 42.64% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 2.5 57.35% ▼ (-0.16)
Over 3.5 21.75% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 3.5 78.25% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 4.5 11.34% ▲ (+0.28)
Under 4.5 88.66% ▼ (-0.29)

First Half Winner

Derby County 28.58% ▼ (-0.64)
Draw 46.79% ▲ (+0.44)
Wrexham 24.63% ▲ (+0.19)

Team To Score First

Derby County 47.8% ▲ (+0.96)
No Goal 9.62% ▼ (-0.29)
Wrexham 42.58% ▼ (-0.68)

Corners

Over 8 66.36% ▲ (+5.65)
Equal 8 10.96% ▼ (-0.46)
Under 8 22.68% ▼ (-5.20)
Over 9 54.3% ▲ (+5.51)
Equal 9 12.05% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 9 33.65% ▼ (-5.64)
Over 10.5 42.29% ▲ (+4.89)
Under 10.5 57.71% ▼ (-4.89)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 28.16% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 1.5 71.84% ▼ (-0.12)
Over 2.5 9.67% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 90.33% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 2.83% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 97.17% ▼ (-0.07)

Wrexham Goals

Over 0.5 70.6% ▲ (+0.35)
Under 0.5 29.4% ▼ (-0.36)
Over 1.5 36.14% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 1.5 63.86% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 2.5 14.09% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 85.91% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 4.53% ▲ (+0.09)
Under 3.5 95.47% ▼ (-0.08)

Score analysis

Derby County 30.8%
Draw 27.96%
Wrexham 41.22%
Derby County
1-0 @ 9.75% ▼ (-0.01)
2-1 @ 6.96% ▼ (-0.04)
2-0 @ 5.32% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 2.48% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.16)
3-2 @ 1.6% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 2.68% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 30.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.01% ▲ (+0.19)
0-0 @ 9.62% ▼ (-0.29)
2-2 @ 4.43% ▲ (+0.07)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 27.96%
Wrexham
0-1 @ 12.01% ▼ (-0.03)
1-2 @ 8.38% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 7.64% ▼ (-0.05)
0-3 @ 3.54% ▼ (-0.13)
1-3 @ 3.49% ▲ (+0.05)
2-3 @ 1.78% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 4.38% ▲ (+0.09)
Total : 41.22%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 26
Jan 4, 2026 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Ben Brereton Díaz 34' goal
  • Corey Blackett-Taylor 60' yellowcard
  • Lewis Travis 60' yellowcard
  • Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 60' yellowcard
  • Andreas Weimann 60' yellowcard
  • Kayden Jackson 81' yellowcard
  • goal Sam Smith 25'
  • goal Matty James 48'
  • yellowcard Ollie Rathbone 66'
  • yellowcard Lewis O'Brien 75'
  • yellowcard Liberato Cacace 90'
  • yellowcard Jay Rodríguez 90'
Championship
Sep 27, 2025 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT