Championship Gameweek 7
Sep 12, 2026 12.30pm
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Birmingham City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 7.45pm
Derby 0 - 1 West Brom
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Birmingham City

All competitions
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 7.45pm
Norwich 2 - 1 Birmingham
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Phil Neumann

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Birmingham City win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 29.82% and a draw has a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win is 0-1 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-0 (8.45%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.36%).

Result

Derby County 29.82% (-0.01)
Draw 27.5% (+0.04)
Birmingham City 42.68% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.14% (+0.01)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.83% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 28.17% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 47.06% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 52.94% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 25.55% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 74.45% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 13.79%
Under 4.5 86.21%

First Half Winner

Derby County 24.22%
Draw 44.36% (-0.01)
Birmingham City 31.42% (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Derby County 40.97% (-0.08)
No Goal 8.71% (+0.03)
Birmingham City 50.32% (+0.07)

Corners

Over 8 55.84% (+0.13)
Equal 8 11.97%
Under 8 32.19% (-0.13)
Over 9 43.84% (+0.13)
Equal 9 12.01% (+0.01)
Under 9 44.16% (-0.13)
Over 10.5 32.82% (+0.11)
Under 10.5 67.18% (-0.10)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 30.06% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 69.94% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 10.74% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 89.26% (+0.03)
Over 3.5 3.06% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 96.94% (+0.01)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5 73.25% (+0.07)
Under 0.5 26.75% (-0.08)
Over 1.5 40.09% (+0.05)
Under 1.5 59.91% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 16.56% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 83.44% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 5.69% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 94.31% (-0.01)

Score analysis

Derby County 29.8%
Draw 27.5%
Birmingham City 42.7%
Derby County
1-0 @ 8.45% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 7.12%
2-0 @ 4.76%
3-1 @ 2.67%
3-0 @ 2.01% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 1.97%
Other @ 2.82% (-0.03)
Total : 29.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.36% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 8.71% (+0.03)
2-2 @ 5.16% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.03%
Other @ 0.24% (+0.01)
Total : 27.5%
Birmingham City
0-1 @ 11.01% (+0.02)
1-2 @ 8.76%
0-2 @ 7.64% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 3.94%
0-3 @ 3.62%
2-3 @ 2.28% (+0.01)
Other @ 5.45%
Total : 42.7%

Head to Head

Championship
Mar 21, 2026 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Rhian Brewster 43' goal
  • Jaydon Banel 65' yellowcard
  • Oscar Fraulo 83' yellowcard
  • Carlton Morris 84' yellowcard
  • David Ozoh 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tommy Doyle 58'
  • yellowcard Carlos Vicente 58'
  • yellowcard Jhon Solís 59'
  • yellowcard August Priske 71'
  • yellowcard Kyogo Furuhashi 84'
Championship
Dec 26, 2025 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Christoph Klarer 49' yellowcard
  • Jack Robinson 64' goal
  • Jay Stansfield 71' yellowcard
  • Paik Seung-ho 74' yellowcard
  • Christoph Klarer 90'+2' redcard
  • goal Patrick Agyemang 27'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 29'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 39'
  • yellowcard Sondre Langas 71'
Championship Gameweek 29
Jan 30, 2022 1.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Luke Plange 87' goal
  • Krystian Bielik 90'+5' goal
  • goal Lyle Taylor 7'
  • goal Scott Hogan 56'
  • yellowcard Ryan Woods 62'
  • yellowcard Neil Etheridge 63'
  • yellowcard Gary Gardner 70'
  • yellowcard Jordan James 89'
Championship Gameweek 6
Sep 10, 2021 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Scott Hogan 31' goal
  • Ivan Sunjic 57' yellowcard
  • Marc Roberts 76' yellowcard
  • Jeremy Bela 81' goal
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 24'
  • yellowcard Ravel Morrison 76'
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 76'
Championship Gameweek 44
Apr 24, 2021 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 36' goal
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 62'
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 84'
Championship Gameweek 22
Dec 29, 2020 5.30pm
0
4
HT : 0 3
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
  • goal Krystian Bielik 15'
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 17'
  • goal Colin Kazim-Richards 26'
  • yellowcard Louie Sibley 67'
  • goal Jason Knight 77'