Championship Gameweek 7
Derby
Sep 12, 2026 12.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Birmingham
  • Mohammed Fuseini 19' yellowcard
  • Bobby Clark 40' goal
  • yellowcard Alex Cochrane 21'
  • goal Carlos Vicente 42'
  • yellowcard August Priske 44'
  • goal Seung-ho Paik 63'
  • yellowcard Carlos Vicente 90'+4'

Derby County vs Birmingham City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 7.45pm
Derby 0 - 1 West Brom
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Birmingham City

All competitions
Last game
Sep 9, 2026 7.45pm
Norwich 2 - 1 Birmingham
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Phil Neumann

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (9.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.

Result

Derby County 33.11% ▲ (+3.29)
Draw 27.15% ▼ (-0.36)
Birmingham City 39.78% ▼ (-2.90)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.98% ▼ (-0.17)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.59% ▼ (-0.24)
Under 1.5 28.41% ▲ (+0.24)
Over 2.5 46.32% ▼ (-0.75)
Under 2.5 53.68% ▲ (+0.75)
Over 3.5 24.87% ▼ (-0.68)
Under 3.5 75.13% ▲ (+0.68)
Over 4.5 13.11% ▼ (-0.68)
Under 4.5 86.89% ▲ (+0.69)

First Half Winner

Derby County 26.95% ▲ (+2.74)
Draw 44.32% ▼ (-0.04)
Birmingham City 28.74% ▼ (-2.69)

Team To Score First

Derby County 41.67% ▲ (+0.71)
No Goal 8.37% ▼ (-0.35)
Birmingham City 49.96% ▼ (-0.36)

Corners

Over 8 60.44% ▲ (+4.60)
Equal 8 11.65% ▼ (-0.33)
Under 8 27.91% ▼ (-4.28)
Over 9 48.29% ▲ (+4.45)
Equal 9 12.15% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 9 39.56% ▼ (-4.60)
Over 10.5 36.74% ▲ (+3.93)
Under 10.5 63.27% ▼ (-3.92)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 32.01% ▲ (+1.95)
Under 1.5 67.99% ▼ (-1.96)
Over 2.5 11.77% ▲ (+1.03)
Under 2.5 88.23% ▼ (-1.04)
Over 3.5 3.25% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 3.5 96.75% ▼ (-0.19)

Birmingham City Goals

Over 0.5 71.4% ▼ (-1.85)
Under 0.5 28.6% ▲ (+1.86)
Over 1.5 37.2% ▼ (-2.90)
Under 1.5 62.8% ▲ (+2.90)
Over 2.5 14.48% ▼ (-2.08)
Under 2.5 85.52% ▲ (+2.08)
Over 3.5 4.84% ▼ (-0.86)
Under 3.5 95.16% ▲ (+0.85)

Score analysis

Derby County 33.1%
Draw 27.14%
Birmingham City 39.76%
Derby County
1-0 @ 9.19% ▲ (+0.75)
2-1 @ 7.6% ▲ (+0.48)
2-0 @ 5.59% ▲ (+0.83)
3-1 @ 3.07% ▲ (+0.40)
3-0 @ 2.32% ▲ (+0.32)
3-2 @ 2.2% ▲ (+0.24)
Other @ 3.13% ▲ (+0.32)
Total : 33.1%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.68% ▲ (+0.33)
0-0 @ 8.37% ▼ (-0.35)
2-2 @ 5.04% ▼ (-0.13)
Other @ 0.12% ▼ (-0.12)
Total : 27.14%
Birmingham City
0-1 @ 10.85% ▼ (-0.17)
1-2 @ 8.45% ▼ (-0.32)
0-2 @ 7.03% ▼ (-0.61)
1-3 @ 3.63% ▼ (-0.32)
0-3 @ 3.07% ▼ (-0.56)
2-3 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.27)
Other @ 4.72% ▼ (-0.74)
Total : 39.76%

Head to Head

Championship
Derby
Mar 21, 2026 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Birmingham
  • Rhian Brewster 43' goal
  • Jaydon Banel 65' yellowcard
  • Oscar Fraulo 83' yellowcard
  • Carlton Morris 84' yellowcard
  • David Ozoh 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tommy Doyle 58'
  • yellowcard Carlos Vicente 58'
  • yellowcard Jhon Solís 59'
  • yellowcard August Priske 71'
  • yellowcard Kyogo Furuhashi 84'
Championship
Birmingham
Dec 26, 2025 12.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
Derby
  • Christoph Klarer 49' yellowcard
  • Jack Robinson 64' goal
  • Jay Stansfield 71' yellowcard
  • Paik Seung-ho 74' yellowcard
  • Christoph Klarer 90'+2' redcard
  • goal Patrick Agyemang 27'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 29'
  • yellowcard Joe Ward 39'
  • yellowcard Sondre Langas 71'
Championship Gameweek 29
Derby
Jan 30, 2022 1.30pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Birmingham
  • Luke Plange 87' goal
  • Krystian Bielik 90'+5' goal
  • goal Lyle Taylor 7'
  • goal Scott Hogan 56'
  • yellowcard Ryan Woods 62'
  • yellowcard Neil Etheridge 63'
  • yellowcard Gary Gardner 70'
  • yellowcard Jordan James 89'
Championship Gameweek 6
Birmingham
Sep 10, 2021 8.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT
Derby
  • Scott Hogan 31' goal
  • Ivan Sunjic 57' yellowcard
  • Marc Roberts 76' yellowcard
  • Jeremy Bela 81' goal
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 24'
  • yellowcard Ravel Morrison 76'
  • yellowcard Tom Lawrence 76'
Championship Gameweek 44
Derby
Apr 24, 2021 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Birmingham
  • Colin Kazim-Richards 36' goal
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 62'
  • goal Lukas Jutkiewicz 84'
Championship Gameweek 22
Birmingham
Dec 29, 2020 5.30pm
0
4
HT : 0 3
FT St. Andrew's Stadium
Derby
  • goal Krystian Bielik 15'
  • goal Graeme Shinnie 17'
  • goal Colin Kazim-Richards 26'
  • yellowcard Louie Sibley 67'
  • goal Jason Knight 77'

Form Data

Derby 0 - 1 West Brom
West Ham 3 - 0 Derby
Portsmouth 0 - 2 Derby
Derby 0 - 3 Swansea
Derby 2 - 2 Cardiff
Charlton 2 - 1 Derby
Norwich 2 - 1 Birmingham
Birmingham 2 - 2 Wolves
Birmingham 1 - 1 Southampton
Wrexham 1 - 2 Birmingham
Birmingham 1 - 6 Brentford
Birmingham 2 - 2 Bristol City