Championship Gameweek 4
Sep 1, 2026 7.45pm
Fratton Park

Portsmouth vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Portsmouth

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 3.00pm
Bristol City 2 - 1 Portsmouth
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Terry Devlin

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Aug 29, 2026 12.30pm
Derby 0 - 3 Swansea
Goals scored
3
Top scorer
Sammie Szmodics

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Portsmouth win with a probability of 38.45%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 34.55% and a draw has a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Derby County win is 0-1 (9.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.55%).

Result

Portsmouth 38.45% (-0.20)
Draw 27% (+0.02)
Derby County 34.55% (+0.19)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.81% (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.93% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 26.07% (+0.11)
Over 2.5 49.46% (-0.12)
Under 2.5 50.51% (+0.09)
Over 3.5 28.21% (-0.08)
Under 3.5 71.79% (+0.09)
Over 4.5 15.14% (-0.09)
Under 4.5 84.86% (+0.08)

First Half Winner

Portsmouth 28.01% (+0.05)
Draw 44.64% (-0.07)
Derby County 27.35% (+0.04)

Team To Score First

Portsmouth 45.55% (-0.05)
No Goal 7.4% (+0.04)
Derby County 47.05% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 59.69% (+0.06)
Equal 8 10.99% (-0.01)
Under 8 29.32% (-0.06)
Over 9 48.33% (+0.06)
Equal 9 11.36%
Under 9 40.31% (-0.05)
Over 10.5 37.52% (+0.06)
Under 10.5 62.48% (-0.06)

Portsmouth Goals

Over 1.5 38.27% (-0.23)
Under 1.5 61.73% (+0.23)
Over 2.5 15.39% (-0.17)
Under 2.5 84.61% (+0.16)
Over 3.5 5.07% (-0.09)
Under 3.5 94.93% (+0.10)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 68.88% (+0.10)
Under 0.5 31.12% (-0.10)
Over 1.5 35.02% (+0.12)
Under 1.5 64.98% (-0.11)
Over 2.5 13.31% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 86.69% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 4.24% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 95.76% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Portsmouth 38.45%
Draw 27%
Derby County 34.54%
Portsmouth
1-0 @ 9.56% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 8.34% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 6.41% (-0.04)
3-1 @ 3.87% (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.81% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 2.53% (-0.02)
Other @ 4.93% (-0.09)
Total : 38.45%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.55% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 7.4% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 5.8% (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.11%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 27%
Derby County
0-1 @ 9.1% (+0.05)
1-2 @ 7.87% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 5.51% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 3.4% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.33%
0-3 @ 2.23% (+0.03)
Other @ 4.1% (+0.02)
Total : 34.54%

Head to Head

Championship Gameweek 38
Mar 16, 2026 8.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Fratton Park
  • John Swift 63' yellowcard
  • Conor Shaughnessy 63' yellowcard
  • Colby Bishop 77' yellowcard
  • Adrian Segecic 77' yellowcard
  • Makenzie Kirk 83' yellowcard
  • goal Sammie Szmodics 8'
  • yellowcard Oscar Fraulo 61'
  • yellowcard David Ozoh 72'
  • yellowcard Carlton Morris 72'
  • yellowcard Jaydon Banel 83'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 83'
Championship
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT
  • Rhian Brewster 44' yellowcard
  • Hayden Matthews 45' goal
  • goal Callum Lang 6'
  • yellowcard Andre Dozzell 42'
Championship Gameweek 42
Apr 12, 2025 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT Fratton Park
  • Zak Swanson 27' yellowcard
  • Isaac Hayden 33' yellowcard
  • Christian Saydee 68' yellowcard
  • Colby Bishop 69' yellowcard
  • Rob Atkinson 71' goal
  • Rob Atkinson 80' yellowcard
  • Rob Atkinson 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Jacob Widell Zetterstrom 6'
  • yellowcard Matt Clarke 21'
  • yellowcard Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 34'
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 57'
  • goal Jerry Yates 70'
  • goal Rob Atkinson 75' (OG)
Championship Gameweek 21
Dec 13, 2024 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 3 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Kane Wilson 8' goal
  • Eiran Cashin 23' goal
  • Ebou Adams 29' goal
  • Marlon Pack 65' goal
  • yellowcard Tom McIntyre 84'
League One Gameweek 42
Apr 2, 2024 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Fratton Park
  • Patrick Lane 20' yellowcard
  • Abu Kamara 27' goal
  • Connor Ogilvie 72' yellowcard
  • Owen Moxon 77' goal
  • goal Joe Ward 23'
  • goal Joe Ward 35'
  • yellowcard James Collins 43'
League One Gameweek 8
Sep 16, 2023 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Tyrese Fornah 26' yellowcard
  • James Collins 86' goal
  • James Collins 88' yellowcard
  • 90'+5' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marlon Pack 10'
  • yellowcard Regan Poole 28'
  • yellowcard Alex Robertson 65'
  • goal Colby Bishop 90'+5'