Championship Gameweek 44
Apr 21, 2026 7.45pm
Carrow Road

Norwich City vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Norwich City

All competitions
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 12.30pm
Norwich 0 - 2 Ipswich
Goals scored
55
Top scorer
Jovon Makama

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Southampton 2 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
61
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Norwich City win with a probability of 52.02%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 26.45% and a draw has a probability of 21.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Derby County win is 1-2 (6.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.93%).

Result

Norwich City 52.02% (+0.88)
Draw 21.57% (-0.54)
Derby County 26.45% (-0.31)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.56% (-0.83)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.85% (+0.15)
Under 1.5 17.15% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 63.66% (+0.31)
Under 2.5 36.34% (-0.31)
Over 3.5 42.76% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 57.24% (-0.01)
Over 4.5 28.52% (+0.29)
Under 4.5 71.48% (-0.29)

First Half Winner

Norwich City 40.02% (+3.43)
Draw 41.26% (-1.08)
Derby County 18.73% (-2.34)

Team To Score First

Norwich City 61.22% (+2.94)
No Goal 4.28% (+0.02)
Derby County 34.5% (-2.96)

Corners

Over 8 67.73% (+3.30)
Equal 8 10.81% (+0.38)
Under 8 21.47% (-3.68)
Over 9 55.68% (+2.47)
Equal 9 12.05% (+0.86)
Under 9 32.27% (-3.30)
Over 10.5 43.52% (+1.35)
Under 10.5 56.48% (-1.35)

Norwich City Goals

Over 1.5 55.02% (+0.61)
Under 1.5 44.98% (-0.61)
Over 2.5 29.86% (+0.58)
Under 2.5 70.14% (-0.57)
Over 3.5 13.57% (+0.49)
Under 3.5 86.43% (-0.48)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 62.76% (-0.86)
Under 0.5 37.24% (+0.86)
Over 1.5 34.13% (-0.40)
Under 1.5 65.87% (+0.41)
Over 2.5 15.35% (-0.21)
Under 2.5 84.65% (+0.21)
Over 3.5 6.55% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 93.45% (+0.13)

Score analysis

Norwich City 52.02%
Draw 21.56%
Derby County 26.44%
Norwich City
2-1 @ 9.22% (+0.11)
1-0 @ 8.16% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 7.36% (+0.19)
3-1 @ 5.75% (-0.05)
3-0 @ 4.42% (+0.17)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.05)
Other @ 13.04% (+0.49)
Total : 52.02%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.93% (-0.35)
2-2 @ 5.77% (-0.20)
0-0 @ 4.28% (+0.02)
3-3 @ 2.05% (+0.01)
Other @ 0.53% (-0.02)
Total : 21.56%
Derby County
1-2 @ 6.04% (+0.03)
0-1 @ 4.73% (-0.15)
0-2 @ 2.9% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.81% (-0.07)
1-3 @ 2.71% (-0.05)
0-3 @ 1.23% (+0.03)
Other @ 6.02% (-0.12)
Total : 26.44%

Head to Head

Championship
Oct 21, 2025 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Championship Gameweek 31
Feb 8, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Carrow Road
  • Kellen Fisher 30' yellowcard
  • Joshua Sargent 68' goal
  • Callum Doyle 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 27'
  • yellowcard Nat Phillips 59'
  • goal Jerry Yates 89'
Championship Gameweek 7
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
2
3
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Craig Forsyth 21' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 60' goal
  • Tawanda Chirewa 77' yellowcard
  • Kenzo Goudmijn 79' yellowcard
  • Corey Taylor 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Shane Duffy 24'
  • goal Borja Sainz 45'+3'
  • goal Borja Sainz 65'
  • goal Borja Sainz 87'
  • yellowcard Jose Cordoba 90'+5'
Championship Gameweek 41
Apr 10, 2021 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Graeme Shinnie 11' yellowcard
  • Max Bird 15' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 20' yellowcard
  • Patrick Roberts 68' yellowcard
  • goal Kieran Dowell 21'
Championship Gameweek 4
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Carrow Road
  • Emiliano Buendia 44' yellowcard
  • Christoph Zimmermann 54' yellowcard
  • Lukas Rupp 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 79'
  • yellowcard Jason Knight 79'
  • goal Wayne Rooney 87'
Championship Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2018 3.00pm
3
4
HT : 2 2
FT Carrow Road (Norwich, Norfolk)
  • Christoph Zimmermann 5' yellowcard
  • Ben Godfrey 25' goal
  • Teemu Pukki 31' goal
  • Max Aarons 45' yellowcard
  • Mario Vrancic 62' yellowcard
  • Teemu Pukki 81' goal
  • goal Fikayo Tomori 36'
  • goal Mason Mount 45'
  • yellowcard George Evans 66'
  • goal Florian Jozefzoon 87'
  • goal Jack Marriott 90'
  • yellowcard Duane Holmes 90'
  • yellowcard Harry Wilson 90'