Championship Gameweek 44
Norwich
Apr 21, 2026 7.45pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Carrow Road
Derby
  • Mohamed Touré 9' yellowcard
  • Mohamed Touré 33' goal
  • Liam Gibbs 60' goal
  • Mathias Kvistgaarden 62' yellowcard
  • Errol Mundle-Smith 80' yellowcard
  • Anis Slimane 80' yellowcard
  • Sam Field 88' yellowcard
  • goal David Ozoh 54'
  • yellowcard Max Johnston 67'
  • yellowcard Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 67'
  • yellowcard Craig Forsyth 67'
  • yellowcard Oscar Fraulo 75'
  • yellowcard Owen Eames 87'

Norwich City vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Norwich City

All competitions
Last game
Apr 18, 2026 3.00pm
Bristol City 2 - 4 Norwich
Goals scored
62
Top scorer
Mohamed Touré

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Apr 18, 2026 12.30pm
Derby 1 - 0 Oxford Utd
Goals scored
66
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 51.61%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-2 (6.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.

Result

Norwich City 51.61%
Draw 21.65%
Derby County 26.73% ▼ (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.83% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.98% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 17.02% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 63.73% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 36.27% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 42.82% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 57.18% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 28.53% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 71.47% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Norwich City 40.14% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 41.19% ▼ (-0.03)
Derby County 18.67% ▼ (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Norwich City 61.22% ▲ (+0.01)
No Goal 4.27% ▼ (-0.02)
Derby County 34.51%

Corners

Over 8 67.57% ▼ (-0.19)
Equal 8 10.75% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 8 21.68% ▲ (+0.17)
Over 9 55.62% ▼ (-0.17)
Equal 9 11.96% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 9 32.43% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 10.5 43.57% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 10.5 56.43% ▲ (+0.15)

Norwich City Goals

Over 1.5 54.9% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 45.1% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 29.71% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 70.29% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 3.5 13.52% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 86.48% ▼ (-0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 63.11% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 0.5 36.89% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 1.5 34.49% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 65.51% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 15.53% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 84.47% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 6.54% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 93.46% ▼ (-0.02)

Score analysis

Norwich City 51.62%
Draw 21.66%
Derby County 26.73%
Norwich City
2-1 @ 9.19%
1-0 @ 8.01% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.32%
3-1 @ 5.71% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.33%
3-2 @ 4.09% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 12.97%
Total : 51.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.97%
2-2 @ 5.81% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 4.27% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 2.06%
Other @ 0.55% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 21.66%
Derby County
1-2 @ 6.11% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 4.75% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 2.95%
2-3 @ 2.87%
1-3 @ 2.78%
0-3 @ 1.28%
Other @ 5.99%
Total : 26.73%

Head to Head

Championship
Derby
Oct 21, 2025 7.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Norwich
Championship Gameweek 31
Norwich
Feb 8, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Carrow Road
Derby
  • Kellen Fisher 30' yellowcard
  • Joshua Sargent 68' goal
  • Callum Doyle 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ebou Adams 27'
  • yellowcard Nat Phillips 59'
  • goal Jerry Yates 89'
Championship Gameweek 7
Derby
Sep 28, 2024 12.30pm
2
3
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Norwich
  • Craig Forsyth 21' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 60' goal
  • Tawanda Chirewa 77' yellowcard
  • Kenzo Goudmijn 79' yellowcard
  • Corey Taylor 90'+1' goal
  • yellowcard Shane Duffy 24'
  • goal Borja Sainz 45'+3'
  • goal Borja Sainz 65'
  • goal Borja Sainz 87'
  • yellowcard Jose Cordoba 90'+5'
Championship Gameweek 41
Derby
Apr 10, 2021 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Norwich
  • Graeme Shinnie 11' yellowcard
  • Max Bird 15' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 20' yellowcard
  • Patrick Roberts 68' yellowcard
  • goal Kieran Dowell 21'
Championship Gameweek 4
Norwich
Oct 3, 2020 12.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Carrow Road
Derby
  • Emiliano Buendia 44' yellowcard
  • Christoph Zimmermann 54' yellowcard
  • Lukas Rupp 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Graeme Shinnie 79'
  • yellowcard Jason Knight 79'
  • goal Wayne Rooney 87'
Championship Gameweek 25
Norwich
Dec 29, 2018 3.00pm
3
4
HT : 2 2
FT Carrow Road (Norwich, Norfolk)
Derby
  • Christoph Zimmermann 5' yellowcard
  • Ben Godfrey 25' goal
  • Teemu Pukki 31' goal
  • Max Aarons 45' yellowcard
  • Mario Vrancic 62' yellowcard
  • Teemu Pukki 81' goal
  • goal Fikayo Tomori 36'
  • goal Mason Mount 45'
  • yellowcard George Evans 66'
  • goal Florian Jozefzoon 87'
  • goal Jack Marriott 90'
  • yellowcard Duane Holmes 90'
  • yellowcard Harry Wilson 90'

Form Data

Bristol City 2 - 4 Norwich
Norwich 0 - 2 Ipswich
Millwall 1 - 2 Norwich
Norwich 1 - 1 Portsmouth
Charlton 0 - 1 Norwich
Southampton 1 - 0 Norwich
Derby 1 - 0 Oxford Utd
Southampton 2 - 1 Derby
Derby 2 - 0 Stoke
Coventry 3 - 2 Derby
Derby 1 - 0 Birmingham
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby