Club Friendlies 3
Aug 1, 2026 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pirelli Stadium
  • T. Shade 11' goal

Burton Albion vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 28, 2026 7.00pm
Solihull 1 - 1 Burton Albion

Derby County

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 31, 2026 7.00pm
Mansfield 1 - 3 Derby

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.07%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.

Result

Burton Albion 37.96% ▲ (+3.56)
Draw 27.52% ▲ (+0.22)
Derby County 34.56% ▼ (-3.72)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.89% ▲ (+1.19)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.65% ▲ (+1.03)
Under 1.5 28.35% ▼ (-1.02)
Over 2.5 46.87% ▲ (+0.84)
Under 2.5 53.13% ▼ (-0.84)
Over 3.5 26.27% ▲ (+1.22)
Under 3.5 73.73% ▼ (-1.22)
Over 4.5 14.3% ▲ (+0.73)
Under 4.5 85.7% ▼ (-0.72)

First Half Winner

Burton Albion 27.56% ▲ (+2.43)
Draw 44.97% ▲ (+0.61)
Derby County 27.46% ▼ (-3.04)

Team To Score First

Burton Albion 45.19% ▲ (+2.12)
No Goal 8.34% ▼ (-0.73)
Derby County 46.47% ▼ (-1.40)

Corners

Over 8 60.79% ▲ (+0.91)
Equal 8 11.33% ▼ (-0.29)
Under 8 27.87% ▼ (-0.63)
Over 9 48.96% ▲ (+1.12)
Equal 9 11.84% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 9 39.21% ▼ (-0.91)
Over 10.5 37.64% ▲ (+1.21)
Under 10.5 62.36% ▼ (-1.21)

Burton Albion Goals

Over 1.5 35.82% ▲ (+3.11)
Under 1.5 64.18% ▼ (-3.11)
Over 2.5 14.28% ▲ (+2.20)
Under 2.5 85.72% ▼ (-2.21)
Over 3.5 4.35% ▲ (+0.88)
Under 3.5 95.65% ▼ (-0.88)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5 68.08% ▼ (-1.43)
Under 0.5 31.92% ▲ (+1.43)
Over 1.5 33.64% ▼ (-2.09)
Under 1.5 66.36% ▲ (+2.10)
Over 2.5 12.98% ▼ (-1.24)
Under 2.5 87.02% ▲ (+1.23)
Over 3.5 4.47% ▼ (-0.37)
Under 3.5 95.53% ▲ (+0.36)

Score analysis

Burton Albion 37.96%
Draw 27.53%
Derby County 34.57%
Burton Albion
1-0 @ 10.43% ▲ (+0.61)
2-1 @ 8.07% ▲ (+0.42)
2-0 @ 6.26% ▲ (+0.53)
3-1 @ 3.71% ▲ (+0.54)
3-0 @ 2.73% ▲ (+0.28)
3-2 @ 2.54% ▲ (+0.40)
Other @ 4.22% ▲ (+0.77)
Total : 37.96%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.02% ▲ (+0.58)
0-0 @ 8.34% ▼ (-0.73)
2-2 @ 5.09% ▲ (+0.15)
Other @ 0.13% ▲ (+0.11)
Total : 27.53%
Derby County
0-1 @ 9.64% ▼ (-0.86)
1-2 @ 7.53% ▼ (-0.50)
0-2 @ 5.5% ▼ (-0.92)
1-3 @ 3.18% ▼ (-0.19)
0-3 @ 2.26% ▼ (-0.60)
2-3 @ 2.12% ▼ (-0.19)
Other @ 4.34% ▼ (-0.47)
Total : 34.57%

Head to Head

League One Gameweek 28
Jan 15, 2024 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • Tom Barkhuizen 29' goal
  • James Collins 49' goal
  • Conor Hourihane 90'+3' goal
  • goal Steve Seddon 54'
  • yellowcard Deji Oshilaja 64'
  • goal Joe Hugill 65'
League One Gameweek 2
Aug 12, 2023 3.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT Pirelli Stadium
  • Steve Seddon 2' yellowcard
  • Dino Maamria 3' yellowcard
  • goal James Collins 6'
  • yellowcard Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Conor Hourihane 66'
  • goal Conor Hourihane 78'
  • goal Conor Washington 84'
  • yellowcard Eiran Cashin 90'+6'
League One Gameweek 44
Apr 22, 2023 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
  • David McGoldrick 63' goal
League One Gameweek 21
Dec 10, 2022 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Pirelli Stadium
  • Victor Adeboyejo 79' goal
  • goal James Collins 23'
Pre-Season Friendlies
Jul 20, 2019 3.00pm
2
5
HT : 1 3
FT
  • John Brayford 22' goal
  • Scott Fraser 51' goal
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 16'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 28'
  • goal Martyn Waghorn 37'
  • goal Mason Bennett 47'
  • goal Max Bird 93'
Championship
Apr 14, 2018 3.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT
  • Liam Boyce 24' goal
  • Jake Buxton 39' yellowcard
  • Luke Murphy 44' goal
  • John Brayford 63' yellowcard
  • Lucas Akins 68' goal
  • Hope Akpan 77' yellowcard
  • goal David Nugent 29'
  • yellowcard Tom Huddlestone 49'