Club Friendlies 3
Jul 28, 2026 1.00am
Pride Park Stadium

Derby County vs Valencia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 17, 2026 7.00pm
Alfreton 0 - 2 Derby

Valencia

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 25, 2026 7.00pm
Valencia 1 - 2 Castellon

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Derby County win with a probability of 39.28%. A win for Valencia has a probability of 32.74% and a draw has a probability of 27.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Valencia win is 0-1 (9.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.23%).

Result

Derby County 39.28% (+0.01)
Draw 27.93% (-0.15)
Valencia 32.74% (+0.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.28% (+0.32)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.27% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 29.73% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 45.02% (+0.23)
Under 2.5 54.98% (-0.23)
Over 3.5 23.46% (+0.22)
Under 3.5 76.54% (-0.21)
Over 4.5 12.06% (+0.15)
Under 4.5 87.94% (-0.15)

First Half Winner

Derby County 31.08% (+0.08)
Draw 44.97% (-0.01)
Valencia 23.95% (-0.08)

Team To Score First

Derby County 49.92% (+0.08)
No Goal 9.07% (-0.12)
Valencia 41.01% (+0.05)

Corners

Over 8 58.35% (+0.36)
Equal 8 12.14% (+0.08)
Under 8 29.51% (-0.42)
Over 9 45.88% (+0.25)
Equal 9 12.47% (+0.12)
Under 9 41.65% (-0.36)
Over 10.5 34.23% (+0.11)
Under 10.5 65.77% (-0.11)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 35.76% (+0.12)
Under 1.5 64.24% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 13.57% (+0.10)
Under 2.5 86.43% (-0.10)
Over 3.5 3.98% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 96.02% (-0.05)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5 66.18% (+0.13)
Under 0.5 33.82% (-0.12)
Over 1.5 31.1% (+0.15)
Under 1.5 68.9% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 10.89% (+0.07)
Under 2.5 89.11% (-0.07)
Over 3.5 3.2% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 96.8% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Derby County 39.27%
Draw 27.94%
Valencia 32.74%
Derby County
1-0 @ 11.06% (-0.06)
2-1 @ 8.64%
2-0 @ 6.72% (-0.04)
3-1 @ 3.66% (+0.04)
3-0 @ 2.95%
3-2 @ 2.27% (+0.03)
Other @ 3.97% (+0.05)
Total : 39.27%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.23% (-0.05)
0-0 @ 9.07% (-0.12)
2-2 @ 4.92% (+0.04)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 27.94%
Valencia
0-1 @ 9.55%
1-2 @ 7.72% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 5.3% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.82% (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.25% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.91% (+0.03)
Other @ 3.19% (+0.05)
Total : 32.74%