/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F17%2Falflog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
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Joe Ward
14'
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Bobby Clark
33'
Alfreton Town vs Derby County - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.73%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 27.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
Result
Alfreton Town
27.02%
▲
(+0.13)
Draw
25.25%
▼
(-0.08)
Derby County
47.73%
▼
(-0.07)
Both Teams to Score:
51.94%
▲
(+0.20)
Goals
Over 1.5
73.41%
▲
(+0.19)
Under 1.5
26.59%
▼
(-0.20)
Over 2.5
49.15%
▲
(+0.26)
Under 2.5
50.85%
▼
(-0.26)
Over 3.5
26.84%
▲
(+0.24)
Under 3.5
73.16%
▼
(-0.25)
Over 4.5
15.21%
▲
(+0.18)
Under 4.5
84.79%
▼
(-0.17)
First Half Winner
Alfreton Town
21.76%
▲
(+0.04)
Draw
42.89%
▼
(-0.05)
Derby County
35.34%
Team To Score First
Alfreton Town
38.44%
▲
(+0.09)
No Goal
7.64%
▼
(-0.07)
Derby County
53.92%
▼
(-0.04)
Corners
Over 8
56.77%
▲
(+0.03)
Equal 8
12.07%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 8
31.16%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 9
44.54%
▲
(+0.02)
Equal 9
12.23%
Under 9
43.23%
▼
(-0.03)
Over 10.5
33.24%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 10.5
66.76%
▼
(-0.01)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 1.5
27.55%
▲
(+0.24)
Under 1.5
72.45%
▼
(-0.24)
Over 2.5
8.9%
▲
(+0.15)
Under 2.5
91.1%
▼
(-0.15)
Over 3.5
2.27%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 3.5
97.73%
▼
(-0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5
76%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 0.5
24%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 1.5
44.37%
▲
(+0.13)
Under 1.5
55.63%
▼
(-0.13)
Over 2.5
19.88%
▲
(+0.12)
Under 2.5
80.12%
▼
(-0.12)
Over 3.5
7.68%
▲
(+0.07)
Under 3.5
92.32%
▼
(-0.08)
Score analysis
Alfreton Town
27.02%
Draw
25.26%
Derby County
47.73%
Alfreton Town
1-0
@
7.94%
▼
(-0.03)
2-1 @ 6.63% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 4.42% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 2.22% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 1.8% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.26% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 27.02%
2-1 @ 6.63% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 4.42% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 2.22% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 1.8% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.26% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 27.02%
Draw
1-1
@
11.76%
▼
(-0.09)
0-0 @ 7.64% ▼ (-0.07)
2-2 @ 4.99% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.26%
0-0 @ 7.64% ▼ (-0.07)
2-2 @ 4.99% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.26%
Derby County
0-1
@
11.02%
▼
(-0.10)
1-2 @ 9.63% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 8.07% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 4.44% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 4.29% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 7.67% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 47.73%
1-2 @ 9.63% ▼ (-0.02)
0-2 @ 8.07% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 4.44% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 4.29% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 7.67% ▲ (+0.08)
Total : 47.73%