Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 44.86%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 1-2 (7.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.