Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 47.08%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 1-0 (7.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.