Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 26.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 0-1 (8.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.