Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 50.37%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 25.07% and a draw had a probability of 24.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (6.63%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.