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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 64.18%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.68%) and 1-0 (7.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.36%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (4.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 64.18% | 18.83% | 16.99% |
| Both teams to score 60.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.59% | 33.41% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.12% | 9.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.24% | 32.76% |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.21% | 32.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.65% | 69.35% |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% 2-0 @ 8.68% 1-0 @ 7.5% 3-1 @ 7.47% 3-0 @ 6.7% 4-1 @ 4.32% 3-2 @ 4.16% 4-0 @ 3.87% 4-2 @ 2.41% 5-1 @ 2% 5-0 @ 1.79% 5-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 4.48% Total : 64.18% | 1-1 @ 8.36% 2-2 @ 5.4% 0-0 @ 3.24% 3-3 @ 1.55% Other @ 0.28% Total : 18.83% | 1-2 @ 4.66% 0-1 @ 3.61% 0-2 @ 2.02% 2-3 @ 2.01% 1-3 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.96% Total : 16.99% |