Brasileiro Gameweek 27
Sep 12, 2026 8.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Arena do Grêmio
  • Pedro Gabriel 7' yellowcard
  • Wallace 32' yellowcard
  • Mathías Villasanti  39' goal
  • Diego Caito 58' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Tchê Tchê 26'
  • yellowcard Cuiabano 45'+2'
  • yellowcard Robert Renan 53'
  • goal Thiago Mendes  76'
  • goal Facundo Colidio 80'

Gremio vs Vasco da Gama - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Sep 8, 2026 12.00am
Vitoria 1 - 0 Gremio
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Vasco da Gama

All competitions
Last game
Sep 6, 2026 1.00am
Fluminense 1 - 0 Vasco
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Andrés Gómez

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 45.8%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 (7.36%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.

Result

Gremio 45.8% ▼ (-0.03)
Draw 26.23%
Vasco da Gama 27.96% ▲ (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.38% ▼ (-0.24)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.2% ▼ (-0.24)
Under 1.5 24.8% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 2.5 51.18% ▼ (-0.39)
Under 2.5 48.82% ▲ (+0.39)
Over 3.5 28.44% ▼ (-0.34)
Under 3.5 71.56% ▲ (+0.35)
Over 4.5 15.84% ▼ (-0.24)
Under 4.5 84.16% ▲ (+0.24)

First Half Winner

Gremio 29.41% ▼ (-0.02)
Draw 46% ▲ (+0.11)
Vasco da Gama 24.59% ▼ (-0.11)

Team To Score First

Gremio 51.99% ▲ (+0.17)
No Goal 7.1% ▲ (+0.09)
Vasco da Gama 40.91% ▼ (-0.25)

Corners

Over 8 58.91% ▲ (+0.62)
Equal 8 10.96% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 8 30.14% ▼ (-0.54)
Over 9 47.65% ▲ (+0.66)
Equal 9 11.26% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 9 41.09% ▼ (-0.62)
Over 10.5 36.99% ▲ (+0.65)
Under 10.5 63.01% ▼ (-0.65)

Gremio Goals

Over 1.5 44.44% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 1.5 55.56% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 2.5 19.38% ▼ (-0.31)
Under 2.5 80.62% ▲ (+0.31)
Over 3.5 7.08% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 3.5 92.92% ▲ (+0.19)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5 64.04% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 0.5 35.96% ▲ (+0.12)
Over 1.5 30.02% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 69.98% ▲ (+0.17)
Over 2.5 10.78% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 2.5 89.22% ▲ (+0.07)
Over 3.5 2.97% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.03% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Gremio 45.81%
Draw 26.24%
Vasco da Gama 27.97%
Gremio
1-0 @ 10.36% ▲ (+0.15)
2-1 @ 9.79% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 7.55% ▲ (+0.09)
3-1 @ 4.5% ▼ (-0.04)
3-0 @ 4.06% ▼ (-0.03)
3-2 @ 2.64% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 6.91% ▼ (-0.17)
Total : 45.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.37% ▲ (+0.04)
0-0 @ 7.1% ▲ (+0.09)
2-2 @ 5.5% ▼ (-0.08)
3-3 @ 1.1% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.17% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 26.24%
Vasco da Gama
0-1 @ 7.36% ▲ (+0.03)
1-2 @ 7.01%
0-2 @ 4.09% ▲ (+0.01)
1-3 @ 2.6% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.22% ▲ (+0.03)
0-3 @ 1.89% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.8% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 27.97%

Head to Head

Brasileiro Gameweek 8
Mar 22, 2026 7.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
  • Cuiabano 7' goal
  • David 34' goal
  • Marino Hinestroza 58' yellowcard
  • José Luis Rodríguez 58' yellowcard
  • Matheus França 68' yellowcard
  • Johan Rojas 69' yellowcard
  • Lucas Piton 82' yellowcard
  • goal Carlos Vinícius 38'
  • yellowcard José Enamorado 46'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Martins 46'
  • yellowcard Willian 56'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Mec 64'
  • yellowcard Martin Braithwaite 75'
Brasileiro
Nov 20, 2025 12.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 15
Jul 19, 2025 9.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 20
Jul 28, 2024 11.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Cristian Pavon 45'+7' yellowcard
  • Yeferson Soteldo 57' goal
  • Douglas Moreira 68' yellowcard
  • Walter Kannemann 69' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matheus Carvalho 1'
  • yellowcard Lucas Piton 35'
  • yellowcard David 69'
  • yellowcard Paulo Henrique 79'
Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Apr 14, 2024 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
  • Rossi 17' yellowcard
  • David 24' goal
  • Matheus Carvalho 37' goal
  • Ramon Diaz 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Juan Sforza 65' yellowcard
  • Joao Victor 90'+6' yellowcard
  • Lucas Piton 90'+8' yellowcard
  • goal Gustavo Martins 68'
  • yellowcard Leo Pele 90'+1'
Brasileiro Gameweek 37
Dec 3, 2023 9.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Rodrigo Ely 35' goal
  • Luis Suarez 46' goal
  • Gustavo Martins 48' yellowcard
  • Bruno Alves 45'+5' yellowcard
  • Nathan 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marlon Gomes 75'