Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 1-0 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.