Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 45.82%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 28.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.35%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 1-0 (8.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.