Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leuven win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 37.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leuven win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (5.88%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 0-1 (9.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.