Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 59.75%. A win for Mechelen had a probability of 20.13% and a draw had a probability of 20.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (9.01%). The likeliest Mechelen win was 1-2 (5.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.