Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 51.16%. A win for Malmo had a probability of 26.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Malmo win was 0-1 (6.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.