Preview: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

The 30th Champions League meeting between European heavyweights Bayern Munich and Real Madrid takes centre stage at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night.

Vincent Kompany’s side enter this mouth-watering quarter-final second leg boasting a one-goal advantage after winning last week’s first leg 2-1 at the Bernabeu.

Match preview

Goals either side of half time from Luis Diaz and Harry Kane helped Bayern earn a slender first-leg victory over Real Madrid and ended their nine-game winless run against the Spanish giants (L7 D2), but a late strike from Kylian Mbappe has kept the contest alive for Alvaro Arbeloa’s side.

The Bavarians will take comfort from having won 29 of their 30 two-legged ties in UEFA competition after winning the first leg on the road, including 12 out of 13 when winning the first leg by a one-goal margin. The only blot on their copybook came in 2010-11 when Inter Milan came from 1-0 down to win 3-2 in the second leg and progress from the last 16 on away goals.

Kompany’s men followed up their victory in Madrid with an emphatic 5-0 away success over St Pauli in the Bundesliga last Saturday. The reigning German top-flight champions have moved 12 points clear at the summit, thanks to second-placed Borussia Dortmund losing to Bayer Leverkusen, and they could clinch yet another title as early as this weekend.

Bayern’s immediate priority is the Champions League, though, and progressing to their first semi-final since winning the competition for a sixth time in 2019-20. That could prove challenging against Real Madrid, given they have lost seven of their last eight UEFA two-legged ties against Spanish teams and four of their last five such quarter-finals.

However, the Allianz Arena has become a fortress for Bayern, who have won all five European home games this season, averaging 3.2 goals in those games, and have lost just one of their last 28 UCL home fixtures (W22 D5). They have also tasted defeat just twice in 44 matches across all competitions in front of their own fans, so there is reason to be optimistic of success on Tuesday.

Real Madrid face the grim prospect of a second consecutive season without a major trophy as their campaign has begun to unravel at a crucial moment, with last week’s first-leg loss to Bayern sandwiched between two disappointing La Liga results against Mallorca and Girona.

Six days after suffering a 2-1 defeat at Mallorca, a strong Los Blancos lineup was held to a 1-1 home draw by Girona last Friday, sparking a chorus of whistles and boos from the Bernabeu faithful at full time. Real’s latest setback has allowed title rivals Barcelona to establish a nine-point lead at the La Liga summit with seven games remaining.

Life after Xabi Alonso has been anything but smooth for head coach Arbeloa. A shock Copa del Rey exit at the hands of lower-league opposition followed by a stuttering European campaign have left the 43-year-old under mounting pressure. With the domestic title now slipping away, Arbeloa has only one card left to play: the club’s historic ability to transform under the bright lights of the Champions League.

The 15-time European champions have only prevailed in one of their previous seven two-legged ties in UEFA competition after losing the first leg on home soil. However, Real Madrid have won all of their last seven European Cup/Champions League quarter-final ties against German opposition.

Los Blancos have also won each of their last nine UEFA two-legged ties against German teams and have been beaten in just two of their last 12 European away matches against German sides (W7 D3). Against Bayern, Real are unbeaten in their last four games at the Allianz Arena (W3 D1) and have not lost any of their last four UCL two-legged ties with the Bavarians, most recently winning 4-3 on aggregate in the 2023-24 semi-finals.

Bayern Munich Champions League form:

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):

Real Madrid Champions League form:

Real Madrid form (all competitions):

Team News

Bayern Munich will be without teenage winger Lennart Karl (thigh) and goalkeeper Sven Ulreich (muscle) due to injury, while Kane should be fit to feature despite feeling “a few reactions” after the first leg, resulting in him watching on as an unused substitute against St Pauli.

Kane, who has registered a goal or an assist in each of his last four Champions League appearances against Real Madrid, has netted 11 goals in this season’s competition and is just one goal away from recording his best UCL goal tally.

Serge Gnabry will hope to have shaken off a minor knee issue to start alongside Diaz and Michael Olise in attack, with Jamal Musiala making way, while Aleksandar Pavlovic will be pushing to start ahead of Leon Goretzka in centre-midfield.

Jonathan Tah - who has committed more fouls (21) than any other player in the Champions League this term - Dayot Upamecano and Josip Stanisic were all rested last weekend and are expected to return in defence to play alongside Konrad Laimer, protecting 40-year-old goalkeeper Manuel Neuer.

As for Real Madrid, Thibaut Courtois (thigh) and Rodrygo (ACL) remain sidelined through injury, while Aurelien Tchouameni picked up his third yellow card of the competition in last week’s first leg and is now suspended for Wednesday’s match.

Mbappe is the Champions League’s top scorer this term with 14 goals in just 10 games - only three behind the single-season scoring record of 17 - but the forward is currently a minor doubt for the second leg after sustaining a facial injury in the latter stages of the draw with Girona.

If fit, the Frenchman could be joined in attack by Vinicius Junior and either Arda Guler or Brahim Diaz, with Gonzalo Garcia waiting in the wings if needed to lead the line.

Eduardo Camavinga or 18-year-old Thiago Pitarch Pinar may start in midfield alongside Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham in the absence of Tchouameni, while Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rudiger, Dean Huijsen and Alvaro Carreras could all be recalled to the back four.

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:

Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Gnabry, Diaz; Kane

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:

Lunin; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham; Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius Jr

We say: Bayern Munich 3-2 Real Madrid (Bayern to win 5-3 on aggregate)

After both falling at the quarter-final hurdle in last season’s Champions League, the pressure is on Bayern and Real Madrid - particularly the latter - to produce a statement performance on Wednesday that will go a long way in helping them secure a place in the final four.

Time and time again, Real have defied the odds to prevail on the European stage, and while Los Blancos hold the historical edge with 13 wins to Bayern’s 12, they may come up short on this occasion. Indeed, the formidable home record of the German juggernauts, combined with an attacking unit in peak form, suggests that Real’s knack for UCL miracles will be pushed to its absolute limit.

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