Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 49.25%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.87%) and 0-2 (8.93%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 (7.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%).