Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Auckland FC win with a probability of 37.4%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Auckland FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.57%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-0 (9.69%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.