Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.29%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 27.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 0-1 (6.96%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.