Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 28.58% and a draw had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%).