Australian A-League

Dec 29, 2025 at 8am UK

Victory Melbourne Victory
5-1
Wellington Wellington Phoenix

Vergos (7', 42', 47'), Santos Rodrigus (55'), Jelacic (90')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Najjarine (29')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Wellington Phoenix.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 5-1 Wellington
Monday, December 29 at 8am in Australian A-League

Next Game: Victory vs. Perth Glory
Friday, January 2 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 5-1 Wellington
Monday, December 29 at 8am in Australian A-League

Next Game: Brisbane Roar vs. Wellington
Saturday, January 3 at 6am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 53.59%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
53.59% ( -0.2)	22.61% ( 0.15)	23.79% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 58.32% (

-0.46)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.5% (

-0.63)

41.49% (

0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.11% (

-0.64)

63.89% (

0.63)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.52% (

-0.29)

15.48% (

0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.64% (

-0.54)

44.35% (

0.53)

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69% (

-0.31)

30.99% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.7% (

-0.36)

67.29% (

0.35)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 53.59%

Wellington Phoenix 23.79%

Draw 22.61%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Wellington Phoenix
2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 8.35% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 2.42% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 0.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.8% Total : 53.59%	1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.61%	1-2 @ 6.14% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.29% ( 0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 23.79%