Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 42.09%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 23.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.61%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 1-2 (7.85%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.