Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 41.06%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 35.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Adelaide United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.21%) and 0-2 (5.82%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 (7.97%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.