Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 38.7%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 38.47% and a draw had a probability of 22.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.87%) and 0-2 (4.93%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (8.23%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.