Australian A-League Gameweek 16
Wellington
Feb 6, 2026 6.00am
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Carlo Armiento 39' goal
  • Luke Brooke-Smith 68' yellowcard
  • Corban Piper 77' yellowcard
  • Lukas Kelly-Heald 82' yellowcard
  • Matthew Sheridan 82' yellowcard
  • Matt Sheridan 82' yellowcard
  • Roderick Miranda 84' goal
  • Lukas Kelly-Heald 84' yellowcard
  • Matthew Sheridan 84' yellowcard
  • goal Sebastian Esposito 10'
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 44'
  • yellowcard Keegan Jelacic 63'
  • yellowcard Matthew Grimaldi 63'
  • yellowcard Matthew Grimaldi 64'
  • yellowcard Keegan Jelacic 64'
  • yellowcard Louis D'Arrigo 76'
  • yellowcard Nikolaos Vergos 76'
  • yellowcard Nikos Vergos 76'
  • goal Louis D'Arrigo 77'

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Jan 30, 2026 6.00am
Wellington 2 - 2 Melbourne City
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Eze Kelvin

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Feb 1, 2026 6.00am
Central Coast 1 - 0 Victory
Goals scored
30
Top scorer
Nikolaos Vergos

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-0 (7.71%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result

Wellington Phoenix 33.16%
Draw 23.59%
Melbourne Victory 43.28% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.7%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.25% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 21.75% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 55.3%
Under 2.5 44.7%
Over 3.5 33.53%
Under 3.5 66.47%
Over 4.5 19.31% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 4.5 80.69% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Wellington Phoenix 23.79%
Draw 37.29%
Melbourne Victory 38.92%

Team To Score First

Wellington Phoenix 38.47%
No Goal 5.46%
Melbourne Victory 56.07%

Corners

Over 8 64.7%
Equal 8 10.58%
Under 8 24.72%
Over 9 53.3%
Equal 9 11.4%
Under 9 35.3%
Over 10.5 42.06%
Under 10.5 57.94%

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 1.5 35.62% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 64.38% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 14.44% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 85.56% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 4.53% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 95.47% ▼ (-0.02)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5 75.29% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 24.71% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 44.51% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 55.49% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 20.46% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 79.54% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 7.91%
Under 3.5 92.09%

Score analysis

Wellington Phoenix 33.16%
Draw 23.59%
Melbourne Victory 43.27%
Wellington Phoenix
1-0 @ 7.71%
2-1 @ 7.45% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 5%
3-1 @ 3.73%
3-2 @ 2.71%
3-0 @ 2.19%
Other @ 4.37% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 33.16%
Draw
1-1 @ 11% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.69%
0-0 @ 5.46%
3-3 @ 1.28%
Other @ 0.16% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 23.59%
Melbourne Victory
1-2 @ 8.69% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 8.6% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 6.96% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 4.79% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 3.44%
2-3 @ 3.04%
Other @ 7.75% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 43.27%

Head to Head

Australian A-League
Victory
Dec 29, 2025 8.00am
5
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Wellington
  • Nikolaos Vergos 7' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 42' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 47' goal
  • Clarismario Santos Rodrigus 55' goal
  • Keegan Jelacic 90' goal
  • Adama Traore 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Ramy Najjarine 29'
  • yellowcard Manjrekar James 45'+2'
Australian A-League Gameweek 26
Wellington
Apr 12, 2025 6.00am
2
3
HT : 2 4
FT Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Corban Piper 10' goal
  • Corban Piper 10' goal
  • Paulo Retre 75' goal
  • Paulo Retre 75' goal
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 4'
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 4'
  • goal Zinedine Machach 45'+1'
  • goal Zinedine Machach 45'+1'
  • goal Nikolaos Vergos 50'
  • goal Nikolaos Vergos 50'
  • yellowcard Lachlan Jackson 57'
  • yellowcard Lachlan Jackson 57'
  • yellowcard Brendan Hamill 78'
  • yellowcard Brendan Hamill 78'
Australian A-League Gameweek 19
Victory
Feb 14, 2025 8.35am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Wellington
  • Nikolaos Vergos 57' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 58' yellowcard
  • Joshua Rawlins 65' yellowcard
  • Mitchell Langerak 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matthew Sheridan 75'
  • yellowcard Sam Sutton 89'
Australian A-League Gameweek 5
Wellington
Nov 24, 2024 2.30am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Allianz Stadium
Victory
  • Alex Rufer 62' yellowcard
  • Alex Rufer 62' yellowcard
  • Kosta Barbarouses 82' goal
  • Kosta Barbarouses 82' goal
  • yellowcard Kasey Bos 30'
  • yellowcard Kasey Bos 30'
Australian A-League
Wellington
May 18, 2024 7.30am
1
2
HT : 0 0
ET Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Youstin Salas 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Youstin Salas 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Oskar Zawada 90'+9' goal
  • Oskar Zawada 90'+9' goal
  • yellowcard Daniel Arzani 30'
  • yellowcard Daniel Arzani 30'
  • goal Adama Traore 81'
  • goal Adama Traore 82'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 97'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 97'
  • goal Chris Ikonomidis 102'
  • goal Chris Ikonomidis 102'
Australian A-League
Victory
May 12, 2024 7.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Marvel Stadium
Wellington
  • Daniel Arzani 88' yellowcard
  • Daniel Arzani 88' yellowcard
  • yellowcard David Ball 41'
  • yellowcard David Ball 41'
  • yellowcard Nicholas Pennington 52'
  • yellowcard Nicholas Pennington 52'
  • yellowcard Alex Rufer 90'+5'
  • yellowcard Alex Rufer 90'+5'

Form Data

Wellington 2 - 2 Melbourne City
Newcastle Jets 4 - 1 Wellington
Sydney FC 0 - 2 Wellington
Wellington 2 - 2 Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar 0 - 3 Wellington
Victory 5 - 1 Wellington
Central Coast 1 - 0 Victory
Victory 4 - 0 Sydney FC
Adelaide United 2 - 1 Victory
Victory 0 - 1 Western Sydney
Victory 3 - 2 Perth Glory
Victory 5 - 1 Wellington