Australian A-League Gameweek 23
Victory
Apr 5, 2026 6.00am
Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Wellington

Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 6.10am
Victory 4 - 1 Central Coast
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Nikolaos Vergos

Wellington Phoenix

All competitions
Australian A-League
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 4.00am
Brisbane Roar 1 - 2 Wellington
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Eze Kelvin

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 59.74%. A draw has a probability of 21.31% and a win for Wellington Phoenix has a probability of 18.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.75%) , while for a Wellington Phoenix win it is 1-2 (4.89%).

Result

Melbourne Victory 59.74% ▲ (+0.09)
Draw 21.31%
Wellington Phoenix 18.95% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

56.2% ▼ (-0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.78% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 1.5 19.22% ▲ (+0.15)
Over 2.5 59.43% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 2.5 40.57% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 3.5 38.04% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 3.5 61.96% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 4.5 24.09% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 4.5 75.91% ▲ (+0.05)

First Half Winner

Melbourne Victory 43.65% ▼ (-0.08)
Draw 36.38% ▲ (+0.06)
Wellington Phoenix 19.97% ▲ (+0.02)

Team To Score First

Melbourne Victory 63.13% ▼ (-0.02)
No Goal 4.79% ▲ (+0.04)
Wellington Phoenix 32.08% ▼ (-0.02)

Corners

Over 8 65.7% ▼ (-0.11)
Equal 8 10.35% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 8 23.96% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 9 54.47% ▼ (-0.14)
Equal 9 11.23% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 9 34.3% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 10.5 43.29% ▼ (-0.15)
Under 10.5 56.71% ▲ (+0.15)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 1.5 58.83% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 41.17% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 32.7% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 67.3% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 14.88%
Under 3.5 85.12%

Wellington Phoenix Goals

Over 0.5 55.94% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 0.5 44.06% ▲ (+0.20)
Over 1.5 24.74% ▼ (-0.19)
Under 1.5 75.26% ▲ (+0.19)
Over 2.5 8.12% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 2.5 91.88% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 2.37% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 97.63% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Melbourne Victory 59.74%
Draw 21.3%
Wellington Phoenix 18.94%
Melbourne Victory
2-1 @ 9.87% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 9.57% ▲ (+0.05)
2-0 @ 9.06% ▲ (+0.06)
3-1 @ 6.74%
3-0 @ 5.94%
3-2 @ 3.88%
Other @ 14.68% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 59.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.75%
2-2 @ 5.3% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 4.79% ▲ (+0.04)
3-3 @ 1.26% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 0.2% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 21.3%
Wellington Phoenix
1-2 @ 4.89% ▼ (-0.05)
0-1 @ 4.84% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.55% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.91% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.9% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.17% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 18.94%

Head to Head

Australian A-League Gameweek 16
Wellington
Feb 6, 2026 6.00am
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Carlo Armiento 39' goal
  • Luke Brooke-Smith 68' yellowcard
  • Corban Piper 77' yellowcard
  • Lukas Kelly-Heald 82' yellowcard
  • Matthew Sheridan 82' yellowcard
  • Matt Sheridan 82' yellowcard
  • Roderick Miranda 84' goal
  • Lukas Kelly-Heald 84' yellowcard
  • Matthew Sheridan 84' yellowcard
  • goal Sebastian Esposito 10'
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 44'
  • yellowcard Keegan Jelacic 63'
  • yellowcard Matthew Grimaldi 63'
  • yellowcard Matthew Grimaldi 64'
  • yellowcard Keegan Jelacic 64'
  • yellowcard Louis D'Arrigo 76'
  • yellowcard Nikolaos Vergos 76'
  • yellowcard Nikos Vergos 76'
  • goal Louis D'Arrigo 77'
Australian A-League
Victory
Dec 29, 2025 8.00am
5
1
HT : 2 1
FT
Wellington
  • Nikolaos Vergos 7' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 42' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 47' goal
  • Clarismario Santos Rodrigus 55' goal
  • Keegan Jelacic 90' goal
  • Adama Traore 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal Ramy Najjarine 29'
  • yellowcard Manjrekar James 45'+2'
Australian A-League Gameweek 26
Wellington
Apr 12, 2025 6.00am
2
3
HT : 2 4
FT Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Corban Piper 10' goal
  • Corban Piper 10' goal
  • Paulo Retre 75' goal
  • Paulo Retre 75' goal
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 4'
  • goal Nishan Velupillay 4'
  • goal Zinedine Machach 45'+1'
  • goal Zinedine Machach 45'+1'
  • goal Nikolaos Vergos 50'
  • goal Nikolaos Vergos 50'
  • yellowcard Lachlan Jackson 57'
  • yellowcard Lachlan Jackson 57'
  • yellowcard Brendan Hamill 78'
  • yellowcard Brendan Hamill 78'
Australian A-League Gameweek 19
Victory
Feb 14, 2025 8.35am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Melbourne Rectangular Stadium
Wellington
  • Nikolaos Vergos 57' goal
  • Nikolaos Vergos 58' yellowcard
  • Joshua Rawlins 65' yellowcard
  • Mitchell Langerak 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matthew Sheridan 75'
  • yellowcard Sam Sutton 89'
Australian A-League Gameweek 5
Wellington
Nov 24, 2024 2.30am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Allianz Stadium
Victory
  • Alex Rufer 62' yellowcard
  • Alex Rufer 62' yellowcard
  • Kosta Barbarouses 82' goal
  • Kosta Barbarouses 82' goal
  • yellowcard Kasey Bos 30'
  • yellowcard Kasey Bos 30'
Australian A-League
Wellington
May 18, 2024 7.30am
1
2
HT : 0 0
ET Westpac Stadium
Victory
  • Youstin Salas 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Youstin Salas 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Oskar Zawada 90'+9' goal
  • Oskar Zawada 90'+9' goal
  • yellowcard Daniel Arzani 30'
  • yellowcard Daniel Arzani 30'
  • goal Adama Traore 81'
  • goal Adama Traore 82'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 97'
  • yellowcard Connor Chapman 97'
  • goal Chris Ikonomidis 102'
  • goal Chris Ikonomidis 102'

Form Data

Victory 4 - 1 Central Coast
Victory 4 - 1 Macarthur
Sydney FC 2 - 2 Victory
Victory 1 - 1 Adelaide United
Melbourne City 1 - 3 Victory
Victory 1 - 1 Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar 1 - 2 Wellington
Wellington 2 - 0 Perth Glory
Adelaide United 1 - 1 Wellington
Wellington 0 - 1 Sydney FC
Wellington 0 - 5 Auckland FC
Western Sydney 2 - 2 Wellington